Since I didn't make mention of it earlier, he's my thoughts.
I don't like the signing. Yes, Brendan Ryan hasn't been good and we needed to do something in the middle infield; Lopez has been just as bad and LaRussa's stuck him in left field. Even if he plays well, he won't help the infield situation.
I'd be happier if they moved some people thru waivers (see the next post) to give him playing time. Instead, they send Ryan down to cut into the development time of David Freese, Jarrett Hoffpauir, and Tyler Greene - 3 guys that have the same, if not more, potential then Ryan and Lopez.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
7 and 4...
7 games back of the Cubs for first and 4 back of the Brewers for the Wild Card - not insurmountable odds, but I'm not feeling optomistic. It doesn't help that Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer are looking like the pitchers they were prior to this season, Chris Carpenter will miss a start or 2, and Albert Pujols is having elbow pains.
Rather than continue through this, why not take a gamble.
Lohse's value has to be slipping recently; now would be a perfect time to place him on waivers to see who bites. You'd think any contender would like to add him for a prospect or 2. This month, his numbers aren't good - his ERA has climbed and he's not getting the groundballs he was getting earlier in the season, resulting in more home runs. He'll also probably get a 4 year deal; something that the Cardinals need to pass on.
Braden Looper is also struggling a little; he's got a lot of wins, so someone would be interested. He'd work as a starter or a reliever. We wouldn't get as much for him, but if a prospect were to equal a sandwich pick, I'd take it (especially considering they won't offer him arbitration, so they won't get a pick for him).
Cesar Izturis and Aaron Miles would also have some value on the market. Neither should be considered in the long term plans and someone could take a chance for the penant run. Izturis is an excellent defensive player; he's also getting on base decently. Miles is having a hot year as a part time player, so a contender may be willing to add him. Both wouldn't net you much, but it's better than getting nothing when they leave.
There is the possibility that someone would also want Russ Springer. I'd consider him with Izturis and Miles for what we'd get in return. I'm more interested in opening a roster spot.
The last trade, and probably the easiest, is moving Josh Phelps. He doesn't have to clear waivers (since he's not on the 40-man roster) and give a team a MLB power bat off the bench. He's probably going to get you as much as Springer, Miles, or Izturis, which would be good for a guy in Triple A.
If you could move these 5, you'd open spots for Adam Wainwright and Mitchell Boggs in the rotation, Jason Motte in the bullpen, and Jarrett Hoffpauir and Brendan Ryan on the bench (or Brian Barden when he gets back from the Olympics).
I don't think these move will hurt the team any; in fact, I'd see over all improvements in the rotation, bullpen, and bench (if Barden were the one promoted). You could also use Felipe Lopez at shortstop, where he is more of an asset then left field.
Rather than continue through this, why not take a gamble.
Lohse's value has to be slipping recently; now would be a perfect time to place him on waivers to see who bites. You'd think any contender would like to add him for a prospect or 2. This month, his numbers aren't good - his ERA has climbed and he's not getting the groundballs he was getting earlier in the season, resulting in more home runs. He'll also probably get a 4 year deal; something that the Cardinals need to pass on.
Braden Looper is also struggling a little; he's got a lot of wins, so someone would be interested. He'd work as a starter or a reliever. We wouldn't get as much for him, but if a prospect were to equal a sandwich pick, I'd take it (especially considering they won't offer him arbitration, so they won't get a pick for him).
Cesar Izturis and Aaron Miles would also have some value on the market. Neither should be considered in the long term plans and someone could take a chance for the penant run. Izturis is an excellent defensive player; he's also getting on base decently. Miles is having a hot year as a part time player, so a contender may be willing to add him. Both wouldn't net you much, but it's better than getting nothing when they leave.
There is the possibility that someone would also want Russ Springer. I'd consider him with Izturis and Miles for what we'd get in return. I'm more interested in opening a roster spot.
The last trade, and probably the easiest, is moving Josh Phelps. He doesn't have to clear waivers (since he's not on the 40-man roster) and give a team a MLB power bat off the bench. He's probably going to get you as much as Springer, Miles, or Izturis, which would be good for a guy in Triple A.
If you could move these 5, you'd open spots for Adam Wainwright and Mitchell Boggs in the rotation, Jason Motte in the bullpen, and Jarrett Hoffpauir and Brendan Ryan on the bench (or Brian Barden when he gets back from the Olympics).
I don't think these move will hurt the team any; in fact, I'd see over all improvements in the rotation, bullpen, and bench (if Barden were the one promoted). You could also use Felipe Lopez at shortstop, where he is more of an asset then left field.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Trade Deadline
Well, the trade deadline has come and gone; all I've heard about for the last 2 days is the Cardinals need to make a move. They didn't and now people are complaining.
"The owners won't add payroll." - Bull. They would have taken on payroll if there would have been something worth adding.
"They over-value their prospects." - Possibly, but most teams were asking for a lot for the players they wanted to trade.
"It's an insult to the fan base that they didn't make a trade." - No, an insult to the fan base would have been to make a trade just to make a trade. Why give up a piece of the future for something that doesn't upgrade the team?
"They needed to add a hitter." - No, the team that's in the top 5 runs scored doesn't need a hitter; they needed pitching.
"Why didn't the add a starter?" - Because the starting pitching isn't the biggest issue. If I remember correctly, the starters didn't give away 3 of the 4 to Milwaukee. We needed a closer and a lefty reliever; the market didn't have a good (or even fair) deal on those, so a deal wasn't made.
I'm fine with not trading for anyone. If you look at the rumors, the only guy that moved that we were tied to was Jason Bay, and he wasn't a necessity. Grabow, Ohman, Sherrill, Fuentes, Street, and Putz weren't moved - either due to the team not making them available or asking for too much. We didn't lose out on anyone.
Do remember that we can still make a trade; waiver deals can happen all the way through the end of the season (but the player must be on a roster by Aug. 31 to qualify for the post season). A good target is Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners; he's due $10MM next season and will be a salary dump (if the Mariners realize that and don't demand an arm and a leg).
Everyone's heard/said this, but we have upgrades from Carpenter, Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia too. If Carp is healthy, he'll be worth more than anyone we could have traded for. Wainwright needs to go to the rotation; he's one of the few starts we have that can eat innings. Garcia is better than Flores, plain and simple; he'll help stablize the left side of the bullpen.
"The owners won't add payroll." - Bull. They would have taken on payroll if there would have been something worth adding.
"They over-value their prospects." - Possibly, but most teams were asking for a lot for the players they wanted to trade.
"It's an insult to the fan base that they didn't make a trade." - No, an insult to the fan base would have been to make a trade just to make a trade. Why give up a piece of the future for something that doesn't upgrade the team?
"They needed to add a hitter." - No, the team that's in the top 5 runs scored doesn't need a hitter; they needed pitching.
"Why didn't the add a starter?" - Because the starting pitching isn't the biggest issue. If I remember correctly, the starters didn't give away 3 of the 4 to Milwaukee. We needed a closer and a lefty reliever; the market didn't have a good (or even fair) deal on those, so a deal wasn't made.
I'm fine with not trading for anyone. If you look at the rumors, the only guy that moved that we were tied to was Jason Bay, and he wasn't a necessity. Grabow, Ohman, Sherrill, Fuentes, Street, and Putz weren't moved - either due to the team not making them available or asking for too much. We didn't lose out on anyone.
Do remember that we can still make a trade; waiver deals can happen all the way through the end of the season (but the player must be on a roster by Aug. 31 to qualify for the post season). A good target is Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners; he's due $10MM next season and will be a salary dump (if the Mariners realize that and don't demand an arm and a leg).
Everyone's heard/said this, but we have upgrades from Carpenter, Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia too. If Carp is healthy, he'll be worth more than anyone we could have traded for. Wainwright needs to go to the rotation; he's one of the few starts we have that can eat innings. Garcia is better than Flores, plain and simple; he'll help stablize the left side of the bullpen.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Riding the Pine Team Rankings
Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Wednesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Wednesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Cardinal Thoughts
Here's my blog dedicated to the Cardinals. To start things off, let's look at what we have tied up for next year (based off today's 40-man roster, including players on the DL, and this year's salary - note that the players are paid if they are on the major league roster; Hoffpauir is not making $390,000 unless he's on the MLB roster):
C - Yadier Molina ($1.8MM)
1B - Albert Pujols ($13.8MM)
2B - Jarrett Hoffpauir ($390,000), Adam Kennedy ($3.5MM), Aaron Miles ($1.4MM)
3B - Troy Glaus ($12.5MM)
SS - Brendan Ryan ($393,000), Rico Washington ($390,000)
OF - Rick Ankiel ($900,000), Brian Barton ($390,000), Chris Duncan ($439,000), Ryan Ludwick ($411,000), Joe Mather ($390,000), Skip Schumaker ($396,000), Nick Stavinoha ($390,000)
SP - Mitchell Boggs ($390,000), Chris Carpenter ($10.5MM), Jaime Garcia ($390,000), Blake Hawksworth ($390,000), Mike Parisi ($390,000), Joel Pineiro ($5.5MM), Adam Wainwright ($687,500), Todd Wellemeyer ($1MM).
RP - Randy Flores ($1MM), Ryan Franklin ($2.25MM), Kelvin Jimenez ($390,000), Tyler Johnson ($390,000), Josh Kinney ($390,000), Kyle McClellan ($390,000), Jason Motte ($390,000), Chris Perez ($390,000), Brad Thompson ($414,000), Mark Worrell ($390,000).
Free Agents: Jason LaRue ($850,000), Cesar Izturis ($2.85MM), Juan Encarnacion ($6.5MM), Braden Looper ($5.5MM), Kyle Lohse ($4.25MM), Jason Isringhausen ($8MM), Russ Springer ($3.5MM), Ron Villone ($600,000), Mark Mulder ($7MM), Matt Clement ($1.25MM).
As of today, there are 39 roster spots filled on the 40-man roster, with Carpenter claiming the 40th tomorrow. With the impending free agents leaving, we'll be down to 31. I'd like to assume that the Cardinals would drop Blake Hawksworth and Rico Washington from the 40-man after the season (or possibly at the trade deadline, depending on the deal); 29 taken roster spots.
As far as payroll, the Cardinals will have $40.3MM come off the payroll, on top of the money they are still paying Jim Edmonds (a couple of million, if I remember correctly). Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker will probably receive nice raises; all are arbitration eligible and salary will exceed a million each. All of the veterans with multi-year deals will probably see a slight raise; it's safe to assume that we'll have close to $70MM tied up before trades and free agency. That would leave us $25MM or so to spend.
(If I can find the exact numbers, I'll post them)
I expect the team will need to find a back up catcher, an upgrade in the middle infield (or 2), and pitching - which I will look at next time.
C - Yadier Molina ($1.8MM)
1B - Albert Pujols ($13.8MM)
2B - Jarrett Hoffpauir ($390,000), Adam Kennedy ($3.5MM), Aaron Miles ($1.4MM)
3B - Troy Glaus ($12.5MM)
SS - Brendan Ryan ($393,000), Rico Washington ($390,000)
OF - Rick Ankiel ($900,000), Brian Barton ($390,000), Chris Duncan ($439,000), Ryan Ludwick ($411,000), Joe Mather ($390,000), Skip Schumaker ($396,000), Nick Stavinoha ($390,000)
SP - Mitchell Boggs ($390,000), Chris Carpenter ($10.5MM), Jaime Garcia ($390,000), Blake Hawksworth ($390,000), Mike Parisi ($390,000), Joel Pineiro ($5.5MM), Adam Wainwright ($687,500), Todd Wellemeyer ($1MM).
RP - Randy Flores ($1MM), Ryan Franklin ($2.25MM), Kelvin Jimenez ($390,000), Tyler Johnson ($390,000), Josh Kinney ($390,000), Kyle McClellan ($390,000), Jason Motte ($390,000), Chris Perez ($390,000), Brad Thompson ($414,000), Mark Worrell ($390,000).
Free Agents: Jason LaRue ($850,000), Cesar Izturis ($2.85MM), Juan Encarnacion ($6.5MM), Braden Looper ($5.5MM), Kyle Lohse ($4.25MM), Jason Isringhausen ($8MM), Russ Springer ($3.5MM), Ron Villone ($600,000), Mark Mulder ($7MM), Matt Clement ($1.25MM).
As of today, there are 39 roster spots filled on the 40-man roster, with Carpenter claiming the 40th tomorrow. With the impending free agents leaving, we'll be down to 31. I'd like to assume that the Cardinals would drop Blake Hawksworth and Rico Washington from the 40-man after the season (or possibly at the trade deadline, depending on the deal); 29 taken roster spots.
As far as payroll, the Cardinals will have $40.3MM come off the payroll, on top of the money they are still paying Jim Edmonds (a couple of million, if I remember correctly). Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker will probably receive nice raises; all are arbitration eligible and salary will exceed a million each. All of the veterans with multi-year deals will probably see a slight raise; it's safe to assume that we'll have close to $70MM tied up before trades and free agency. That would leave us $25MM or so to spend.
(If I can find the exact numbers, I'll post them)
I expect the team will need to find a back up catcher, an upgrade in the middle infield (or 2), and pitching - which I will look at next time.
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