Cardinals vs the Draft

I was reading over at House of Cards about the players the Cardinals have draft and their shift in philosophy of players. While I don't agree with what was said, it was a well written piece.

Colin writes that the Cardinals didn't draft well and that their success comes from free agent signings and trades. I would argue that they did draft better than most would think and the players they drafted were normally used as trade bait.

Now they really did have some bad picks earlier in the decade - Shaun Boyd, Calvin Hayes, and Justin Pope come to mind. The 2005 draft was the turning point. Jeff Luhnow was hired to do the draft (to much controversy, and it led to the destruction of the front office). Since then, the philosophy of the team has shifted from trading prospects for veterans to incorporating prospects with seasoned MLB players.

Here's a quick glance of the last 10 drafts:

1999
MLB: Chris Duncan (1), Josh Pearce (2), Ben Johnson (4), Jimmy Journell (4), Coco Crisp (7), Albert Pujols (13), Mike Crudale (24), Bo Hart (33)

Johnson was traded to the Padres with Heathcliff Slocum for Carlos Hernandez and Nate Tebbs. Crisp was traded to the Indians for Chuck Finley. Crudale was traded to the Brewers for Mike DeJean (Crudale was in his second season with the Cardinals).

Duncan is still around for the team, after stalling early in the minors. He was considered a stretch for a supplemental first round pick. Everyone knows Pujols' story. No one else has had an impact for the team, outside of being traded.

2000
MLB: Chris Narveson (2), Yadier Molina (4), Carmen Cali (10), John Gall (11), Tyler Johnson (34)

Narveson was traded to the Rockies for Larry Walker; he was then traded to the Red Sox, waived, and claimed by the Cardinals. He is now with the Brewers.

Molina will be catching for the Cards for a long time. Johnson was useful before he was injured and non-tendered. Gall and Cali had minimal value for the Cardinals.

2001
MLB: Dan Haren (2), Joe Mather (3), Skip Schumaker (5), John Nelson (8), Terry Evans (47)
Close: Blake Hawksworth (28)
Other Notable: Justin Pope (1)
Did Not Sign: Shane Komine (19), Kevin Correia (23)

Haren was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder (Haren had played 2 seasons with the Cardinals). Evans was traded to the Angels for Jeff Weaver - he made his MLB debut for them. Pope was traded to the Yankees for Sterling Hitchcock.

Mather and Skip are having big spring trainings for us now. Haren is a stud, but was given up in that forgettable Mulder deal (he'd look real good for us now). Nelson played a handfull of games in 2006 and hasn't been heard from since.

Hawksworth is an interesting case - he's been a top prospect, gotten injured, and is attempting to make the team out of spring training. He's had control problems, but looks strong this spring.

This is where you note some MLB players that didn't sign; while Komine and Correia haven't done much, they would have made the organization's drafts look better.

2002
MLB: Brad Thompson (16), Kyle McClellan (25)
Other Notable: Cody Haerther (6), Travis Hanson (9)
Did Not Sign: Sean Kazmar (32)

A sad draft. Thompson has his uses as a spot starter/long reliever, but that's about all. McClellan had a good season in the bullpen last year; he could still have a lot of use.

Haerther the same as a lot of our outfield guys - average defense, good average, no pop. He was removed from the 40-man roster last winter, claimed by the Blue Jays, waived by them a week later only to be claimed by the Cardinals. He was taken in the minor league Rule V draft by the Blue Jays this past December.

Hanson was a decent prospect that couldn't figure out the upper minors. He retired prior to the 2008 season.

Kazmar was later draft by the Padres, where the jury is still out on his performance.

2003
MLB: Daric Barton (1), Dennis Dove (3), Brendan Ryan (7), Anthony Reyes (15), Jason Motte (19)
Other Notable: None
Did Not Sign: Ian Kennedy (14), Kevin Mulvey (34), Brett Sinkbeil (38), Max Scherzer (43), Kam Micholio (46)

Barton was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder - he made his MLB debut for them. Reyes was traded to the Indians for Luis Perdomo.

Dove got a cup of coffee with the team before he was released. Ryan is competing for the second base job; he's really nothing more than a utility player. We know Reyes's story too well; I'm not going to rehash it. Motte has the potential to be a closer; the problem was he was drafted as a catcher. At least they'll be able to salvage him.

Kennedy is an overrated prospect in the Yankees system, but much better than what we drafted in this class (outside of Reyes). Sinkbeil is a good prospect in the Marlins system. Scherzer would be nice to have right about now. Micholio is a good prospect in the Orioles system - he was one of the guys in the Erik Bedard deal last year.

2004
MLB: Chris Lambert (1), Mike Parisi (9), Mark Worrell (12)
Close: Jarrett Hoffpauir (6)
Other Notable: None

Lambert was traded to the Tigers for Mike Maroth - he made his MLB debut for them. Worrell was traded to the Padres for Khalil Greene.

This was the low point of our system. Lambert was a complete bust until moving to the Tigers system. Parisi looked better in the minors; he got blasted with the Cardinals last year and fell to Tommy John Surgery. Worrell became disgruntled with the organization - he was just traded, but should have a decent career.

Hoffpauir may end up in the majors, but he has little to offer. Average defense, good on base percentage, little power. He's more of a utility player than anything (see Brendan Ryan).

Most guys from this draft have been released.

Now, this is where things change. The Cardinals, under Luhnow, began to draft more college players that could fill in the system. The players they drafted had little upside, but little risk as well. As a result, the system has started to produce better players and stopped Memphis from becoming a team of 4A players.

2005
MLB: Mitchell Boggs (5), Nick Stavinoha (7), Jaime Garcia (22)
Close: Colby Rasmus (1), Tyler Greene (1), Bryan Anderson (4)
Other Notable: Daryl Jones (3), Wilfredo Pujols (6)
Did Not Sign: Daniel McCutchen (12), Ryan Rohlinger (21)

Boggs, Stavinoha, and Garcia all made their MLB debuts this past year. Boggs won the PCL ERA crown. Stavihona really doesn't have a future with the team, but will be kept around for depth. Garcia has the most upside, depending on his recovery from TJ surgery.

Colby is going to be a good player; the question is when will he get his shot? Greene looked disappointing at first, but is having a strong spring. Anderson is a great catching prospect, but is blocked so he will most likely be traded.

Jones had a great season, as the ability met up with the hype. He could be a very good player. Wil Pujols, Albert's cousin, was released; he was only drafted because of his bloodline. If they were Twins, Albert would be Arnold while Wil would be Danny.

McCutchen would be nice for depth in the bullpen. Rohlinger made his MLB debut this past season.

2006
MLB: Chris Perez (1)
Close: Jon Jay (2), Allen Craig (8), P.J. Walters (11)
Other Notable: Adam Ottavino (1), Jon Edwards (14), Amaury Cazana Marti (18)
Did Not Sign: None

Perez is battling for the closer role. We know enough about him.

Jay is a long shot to make the team as an outfielder; he is a centerfielder, but may have to settle into a corner to make the team. Craig's spring has been tremendous, they just need to find a spot for him - he may need a season in Triple A before he gets his shot. Walter could be a fill in for the rotation if anyone goes down.

Ottavino needs to find his delivery; he struggled with control and injuries last season. Edwards took a step forward; he could be a sleeper in the system. Marti is an older player, but can kill the ball. He may never see the Majors, but he's a monster.

2007
MLB: None
Close: Clayton Mortenson (1), Jess Todd (2)
Other Notable: Pete Kozma (1), Deryk Hooker (7), Adam Reifer (11), Arnoldi Cruz
Did Not Sign: Kyle Russell (4), Sam Freeman (24)

No ones made it yet, but there are some good names here. Mort and Todd pitched in Triple A last year; both could see rotation time this season.

Reifer is a sleeper for closer in the future. Kozma is the future of shortstop. Hooker and Cruz are creaping onto team prospect lists.

Russell was one of the top hitters, but Jocketty couldn't work out a deal with him. I think the botched negotiations were part of the reason he was fired. Freeman was drafted in 2008 by the Cards, so they didn't lose out.

2008
MLB: None
Close: Brett Wallace (1)
Other Notable: Lance Lynn (1), Niko Vasquez (3), Jermaine Curtis (5)
Did Not Sign: Shane Boras (35)

Everyone knows about Wallace. Lynn is expected to be a fast mover. Most of the other guys drafted made positive impressions on the organization.

Boras is the son of SuperAgent/Scum of the Earth Scott Boras. The elder Boras played in the Cardinals system prior to becoming an agent.


They've drafted a few good players that were traded; Jack Wilson (although not that good, but was an All Star) is another one that comes to mind. Adam Kennedy was a highly touted prospect that was traded for Jim Edmonds. So, prospect in the Cardinals system rarely saw an opportunity to make it with the team since they'd be traded before they had a shot. Maybe some time I'll look at which had better value: the prospects trade or the players received?

The organization is now at a point where they can focus on drafting players with more upside, who tend to be high school players (which I believe is because they are more raw when they are drafted and better to mold). Each level of the minors have the safe, solid players. They can afford to take some more chances, like they did with Vasquez in this past draft.