I'll be back in full force tomorrow, but I wanted to point out my prospect blog. I've always followed the minors pretty well and wanted a place to have all the top 10 team lists and top 100 lists. The Prospect Lists blog is that place. I'll be updating it as much as I can. I'll have the big boys, along with my lists (Riding the Pine).
The link is in the blog roll on the right.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Super-Savers
The battle for the closer is inching towards Jason Motte, in Joe Strauss's opinion. That's fine, but it means that Chris Perez will be squeezed off the roster. But will that maximize the usefulness of Cardinal Pitching?
As of right now, the bullpen would be set up like this:
Closer - Jason Motte
RH Set Up - Ryan Franklin, Josh Kinney, Ryan McClellan
LH Set Up - Trevor Miller, Dennys Reyes
Long Relief - Brad Thompson
I'm fine with almost all of this. My almost is Ryan McClellan.
McClellan has too many pitches to be used as a reliever. Why not send him to Memphis to begin the transition to starting pitcher? He needs to gradually be extended, based off his injury history. In Memphis, they can work to extend him, while paying attention to his innings and pitch counts. It's much better than coming to spring training next year expecting him to start while only pitching 70-80 innings this year.
We know he can get out major league hitters; now is the time to move him to the starting role.
With McClellan starting in Memphis, Perez can take his spot and make the bullpen better. I say the bullpen would be better bacause there are more options for closing.
The 4-man competition for closer could stay as it is; Tony tends to know match ups pretty well, so he would have 4 options against hitters. Say the Phillies are in town and Ryan Howards coming up to bat. If Tony thought Franklin's had some struggles in the past against him, he's getting the night off and one of the other 3 would have the chance to face him.
It would also make better pitchers available to face better hitters. If the heart of a line up is coming up in the 8th, you could use Motte against them without worrying about who would be available to close. It goes back to using your best pitcher in high leverage situations - would you rather use your best pitcher in a tie game in the 8th, or with a 3 run lead in the 9th? I know Baseball Prospectus has looked at it in the past.
As of right now, the bullpen would be set up like this:
Closer - Jason Motte
RH Set Up - Ryan Franklin, Josh Kinney, Ryan McClellan
LH Set Up - Trevor Miller, Dennys Reyes
Long Relief - Brad Thompson
I'm fine with almost all of this. My almost is Ryan McClellan.
McClellan has too many pitches to be used as a reliever. Why not send him to Memphis to begin the transition to starting pitcher? He needs to gradually be extended, based off his injury history. In Memphis, they can work to extend him, while paying attention to his innings and pitch counts. It's much better than coming to spring training next year expecting him to start while only pitching 70-80 innings this year.
We know he can get out major league hitters; now is the time to move him to the starting role.
With McClellan starting in Memphis, Perez can take his spot and make the bullpen better. I say the bullpen would be better bacause there are more options for closing.
The 4-man competition for closer could stay as it is; Tony tends to know match ups pretty well, so he would have 4 options against hitters. Say the Phillies are in town and Ryan Howards coming up to bat. If Tony thought Franklin's had some struggles in the past against him, he's getting the night off and one of the other 3 would have the chance to face him.
It would also make better pitchers available to face better hitters. If the heart of a line up is coming up in the 8th, you could use Motte against them without worrying about who would be available to close. It goes back to using your best pitcher in high leverage situations - would you rather use your best pitcher in a tie game in the 8th, or with a 3 run lead in the 9th? I know Baseball Prospectus has looked at it in the past.
Another Former Cardinal Surfaces
The Kansas City Royals announced they came to terms on a minor league deal with Sindey Ponson.
Ponson was pitching for the Netherlands this spring.
He last pitched for the Yankees briefly last season; he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers last winter and made the club, but was released for essentially being a disruption in the clubhouse.
Ponson pitched for half the season with the 2006 Cardinals, before being released for insubordination (aka, he didn't want to run wind sprints).
Ponson was pitching for the Netherlands this spring.
He last pitched for the Yankees briefly last season; he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers last winter and made the club, but was released for essentially being a disruption in the clubhouse.
Ponson pitched for half the season with the 2006 Cardinals, before being released for insubordination (aka, he didn't want to run wind sprints).
What Should Be Done With Colby?
One of the big decisions in camp is what should be done with Colby Rasmus? The prospect is worth playing in the majors right now, but is there room to get regular at bats?
If it's decided that he'll stay with the major league team, will he get regular at bats. My guess is no. LaRussa has a man crush on Chris Duncan and will play him against every righty pitcher. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve it; he's had a great spring. But does he really give the team the best option to win? I don't think so. He's got great power, but is a butcher in the outfield. He's also very streaky.
The other factor in the decision is Skip Schumaker. If he makes it as the second baseman, there may not be an issue at first. If he can't make the transition, there's another outfielder that will push Rasmus aside. Skip is the only true leadoff hitter on the roster, so his importance to the team is greater than Duncan's. Is he better than Rasmus? No, but LaRussa won't bat Colby first.
The final factor into the Colby roster decision is Troy Glaus. When Glaus returns to the line up, Mather will be back to a utility man, meaning he'll get more time in the outfield. That's another person that pushes Colby out. Is Joey Bombs better than Rasmus? No, but he's more versatile, so LaRussa will value him more.
I think if Colby says up, he'll get playing time like Brian Barton last year.
Does Colby deserve to start the season in the minors? He's struggled this spring and didn't have great final numbers at Memphis last year. A few Triple A at bats to get going doesn't seem like it would hurt. It would also delay starting his service clock, pushing back arbitration and free agency.
This doesn't mean I don't want to see him in St. Louis; I really do, but not if he's not playing everyday. It's possible it could happen, but not with Tony LaRussa running the team. He's got his guys and he'll play them, even if they don't deserve to play.
If it's decided that he'll stay with the major league team, will he get regular at bats. My guess is no. LaRussa has a man crush on Chris Duncan and will play him against every righty pitcher. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve it; he's had a great spring. But does he really give the team the best option to win? I don't think so. He's got great power, but is a butcher in the outfield. He's also very streaky.
The other factor in the decision is Skip Schumaker. If he makes it as the second baseman, there may not be an issue at first. If he can't make the transition, there's another outfielder that will push Rasmus aside. Skip is the only true leadoff hitter on the roster, so his importance to the team is greater than Duncan's. Is he better than Rasmus? No, but LaRussa won't bat Colby first.
The final factor into the Colby roster decision is Troy Glaus. When Glaus returns to the line up, Mather will be back to a utility man, meaning he'll get more time in the outfield. That's another person that pushes Colby out. Is Joey Bombs better than Rasmus? No, but he's more versatile, so LaRussa will value him more.
I think if Colby says up, he'll get playing time like Brian Barton last year.
Does Colby deserve to start the season in the minors? He's struggled this spring and didn't have great final numbers at Memphis last year. A few Triple A at bats to get going doesn't seem like it would hurt. It would also delay starting his service clock, pushing back arbitration and free agency.
This doesn't mean I don't want to see him in St. Louis; I really do, but not if he's not playing everyday. It's possible it could happen, but not with Tony LaRussa running the team. He's got his guys and he'll play them, even if they don't deserve to play.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Cards Cut 8
The most recent rounds of cuts happened yesterday. Here are the victims:
RHPs Mitchell Boggs, Matt Scherer, Adam Ottavino, Jess Todd, and Clayton Mortensen; LHP Charlie Manning; IF Allen Craig; OF Brian Barton.
Here's the quick round up:
Boggs - He was slowed by a sore shoulder, but I expected him to be around a little longer. He'll still get the opportunity for MLB Spring Games, but he's not being considered for the long relief role (I'm expecting that Thompson has it pretty much sealed; PJ Walters is a long shot at this point).
Scherer - The player responsible for Luis Perdomo being selected in the Rule V draft (OK, it wasn't his fault, but they will be tied together if Perdomo makes the Giants roster). Scherer also battled injuries this spring and wasn't expected to make the roster.
Ottavino - The Team Italy pitcher has had a really good spring, but wasn't ever seriously considered for the team. He was just being evaluated by the MLB staff; he passed with flying colors. I expect him to be in Triple A by the end of the season.
Todd - He was one of the staff gems last spring, and really hasn't done anything to tarnish that. Everyone knows he's not ready (but getting close). He'll be ready in Memphis, with Boggs and Walters, if someone goes down.
Mortensen - Another early injury victim. Mort is right there with Todd; I actually like him more, but realize he needs a little more time.
Manning - He wasn't given much of a shot, especially after the signing of Dennys Reyes. He'll be in Triple A just in case, but I don't expect to see him.
Craig - I've addressed Craig last week. He was on fire but not even considered for third base. It's a shame. Hopefully they find a space for him. He'll be in Triple A.
Barton - He's had a slow spring, at least recently. This isn't very surprising. They are going to get him regular at bats since they now control him. He'll be one of the first ones called upon if there is an injury.
That leaves roughly 36 players in the Major League Camp. DG has a good run down and poll about who is left.
RHPs Mitchell Boggs, Matt Scherer, Adam Ottavino, Jess Todd, and Clayton Mortensen; LHP Charlie Manning; IF Allen Craig; OF Brian Barton.
Here's the quick round up:
Boggs - He was slowed by a sore shoulder, but I expected him to be around a little longer. He'll still get the opportunity for MLB Spring Games, but he's not being considered for the long relief role (I'm expecting that Thompson has it pretty much sealed; PJ Walters is a long shot at this point).
Scherer - The player responsible for Luis Perdomo being selected in the Rule V draft (OK, it wasn't his fault, but they will be tied together if Perdomo makes the Giants roster). Scherer also battled injuries this spring and wasn't expected to make the roster.
Ottavino - The Team Italy pitcher has had a really good spring, but wasn't ever seriously considered for the team. He was just being evaluated by the MLB staff; he passed with flying colors. I expect him to be in Triple A by the end of the season.
Todd - He was one of the staff gems last spring, and really hasn't done anything to tarnish that. Everyone knows he's not ready (but getting close). He'll be ready in Memphis, with Boggs and Walters, if someone goes down.
Mortensen - Another early injury victim. Mort is right there with Todd; I actually like him more, but realize he needs a little more time.
Manning - He wasn't given much of a shot, especially after the signing of Dennys Reyes. He'll be in Triple A just in case, but I don't expect to see him.
Craig - I've addressed Craig last week. He was on fire but not even considered for third base. It's a shame. Hopefully they find a space for him. He'll be in Triple A.
Barton - He's had a slow spring, at least recently. This isn't very surprising. They are going to get him regular at bats since they now control him. He'll be one of the first ones called upon if there is an injury.
That leaves roughly 36 players in the Major League Camp. DG has a good run down and poll about who is left.
Monday, March 16, 2009
An Old Face with the White Sox
Baseball America is reporting former Cardinal pitching prospect Stu Pomeranz was signed by the White Sox to a minor league deal last week.
Pomeranz was a second round pick in 2003. He pitched well until he hit Springfield in 2005, then battle injuries after that. He was released from the organization last year, after shoulder problems.
Pomeranz was a second round pick in 2003. He pitched well until he hit Springfield in 2005, then battle injuries after that. He was released from the organization last year, after shoulder problems.
Cardinals vs the Draft
I was reading over at House of Cards about the players the Cardinals have draft and their shift in philosophy of players. While I don't agree with what was said, it was a well written piece.
Colin writes that the Cardinals didn't draft well and that their success comes from free agent signings and trades. I would argue that they did draft better than most would think and the players they drafted were normally used as trade bait.
Now they really did have some bad picks earlier in the decade - Shaun Boyd, Calvin Hayes, and Justin Pope come to mind. The 2005 draft was the turning point. Jeff Luhnow was hired to do the draft (to much controversy, and it led to the destruction of the front office). Since then, the philosophy of the team has shifted from trading prospects for veterans to incorporating prospects with seasoned MLB players.
Here's a quick glance of the last 10 drafts:
1999
MLB: Chris Duncan (1), Josh Pearce (2), Ben Johnson (4), Jimmy Journell (4), Coco Crisp (7), Albert Pujols (13), Mike Crudale (24), Bo Hart (33)
Johnson was traded to the Padres with Heathcliff Slocum for Carlos Hernandez and Nate Tebbs. Crisp was traded to the Indians for Chuck Finley. Crudale was traded to the Brewers for Mike DeJean (Crudale was in his second season with the Cardinals).
Duncan is still around for the team, after stalling early in the minors. He was considered a stretch for a supplemental first round pick. Everyone knows Pujols' story. No one else has had an impact for the team, outside of being traded.
2000
MLB: Chris Narveson (2), Yadier Molina (4), Carmen Cali (10), John Gall (11), Tyler Johnson (34)
Narveson was traded to the Rockies for Larry Walker; he was then traded to the Red Sox, waived, and claimed by the Cardinals. He is now with the Brewers.
Molina will be catching for the Cards for a long time. Johnson was useful before he was injured and non-tendered. Gall and Cali had minimal value for the Cardinals.
2001
MLB: Dan Haren (2), Joe Mather (3), Skip Schumaker (5), John Nelson (8), Terry Evans (47)
Close: Blake Hawksworth (28)
Other Notable: Justin Pope (1)
Did Not Sign: Shane Komine (19), Kevin Correia (23)
Haren was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder (Haren had played 2 seasons with the Cardinals). Evans was traded to the Angels for Jeff Weaver - he made his MLB debut for them. Pope was traded to the Yankees for Sterling Hitchcock.
Mather and Skip are having big spring trainings for us now. Haren is a stud, but was given up in that forgettable Mulder deal (he'd look real good for us now). Nelson played a handfull of games in 2006 and hasn't been heard from since.
Hawksworth is an interesting case - he's been a top prospect, gotten injured, and is attempting to make the team out of spring training. He's had control problems, but looks strong this spring.
This is where you note some MLB players that didn't sign; while Komine and Correia haven't done much, they would have made the organization's drafts look better.
2002
MLB: Brad Thompson (16), Kyle McClellan (25)
Other Notable: Cody Haerther (6), Travis Hanson (9)
Did Not Sign: Sean Kazmar (32)
A sad draft. Thompson has his uses as a spot starter/long reliever, but that's about all. McClellan had a good season in the bullpen last year; he could still have a lot of use.
Haerther the same as a lot of our outfield guys - average defense, good average, no pop. He was removed from the 40-man roster last winter, claimed by the Blue Jays, waived by them a week later only to be claimed by the Cardinals. He was taken in the minor league Rule V draft by the Blue Jays this past December.
Hanson was a decent prospect that couldn't figure out the upper minors. He retired prior to the 2008 season.
Kazmar was later draft by the Padres, where the jury is still out on his performance.
2003
MLB: Daric Barton (1), Dennis Dove (3), Brendan Ryan (7), Anthony Reyes (15), Jason Motte (19)
Other Notable: None
Did Not Sign: Ian Kennedy (14), Kevin Mulvey (34), Brett Sinkbeil (38), Max Scherzer (43), Kam Micholio (46)
Barton was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder - he made his MLB debut for them. Reyes was traded to the Indians for Luis Perdomo.
Dove got a cup of coffee with the team before he was released. Ryan is competing for the second base job; he's really nothing more than a utility player. We know Reyes's story too well; I'm not going to rehash it. Motte has the potential to be a closer; the problem was he was drafted as a catcher. At least they'll be able to salvage him.
Kennedy is an overrated prospect in the Yankees system, but much better than what we drafted in this class (outside of Reyes). Sinkbeil is a good prospect in the Marlins system. Scherzer would be nice to have right about now. Micholio is a good prospect in the Orioles system - he was one of the guys in the Erik Bedard deal last year.
2004
MLB: Chris Lambert (1), Mike Parisi (9), Mark Worrell (12)
Close: Jarrett Hoffpauir (6)
Other Notable: None
Lambert was traded to the Tigers for Mike Maroth - he made his MLB debut for them. Worrell was traded to the Padres for Khalil Greene.
This was the low point of our system. Lambert was a complete bust until moving to the Tigers system. Parisi looked better in the minors; he got blasted with the Cardinals last year and fell to Tommy John Surgery. Worrell became disgruntled with the organization - he was just traded, but should have a decent career.
Hoffpauir may end up in the majors, but he has little to offer. Average defense, good on base percentage, little power. He's more of a utility player than anything (see Brendan Ryan).
Most guys from this draft have been released.
Now, this is where things change. The Cardinals, under Luhnow, began to draft more college players that could fill in the system. The players they drafted had little upside, but little risk as well. As a result, the system has started to produce better players and stopped Memphis from becoming a team of 4A players.
2005
MLB: Mitchell Boggs (5), Nick Stavinoha (7), Jaime Garcia (22)
Close: Colby Rasmus (1), Tyler Greene (1), Bryan Anderson (4)
Other Notable: Daryl Jones (3), Wilfredo Pujols (6)
Did Not Sign: Daniel McCutchen (12), Ryan Rohlinger (21)
Boggs, Stavinoha, and Garcia all made their MLB debuts this past year. Boggs won the PCL ERA crown. Stavihona really doesn't have a future with the team, but will be kept around for depth. Garcia has the most upside, depending on his recovery from TJ surgery.
Colby is going to be a good player; the question is when will he get his shot? Greene looked disappointing at first, but is having a strong spring. Anderson is a great catching prospect, but is blocked so he will most likely be traded.
Jones had a great season, as the ability met up with the hype. He could be a very good player. Wil Pujols, Albert's cousin, was released; he was only drafted because of his bloodline. If they were Twins, Albert would be Arnold while Wil would be Danny.
McCutchen would be nice for depth in the bullpen. Rohlinger made his MLB debut this past season.
2006
MLB: Chris Perez (1)
Close: Jon Jay (2), Allen Craig (8), P.J. Walters (11)
Other Notable: Adam Ottavino (1), Jon Edwards (14), Amaury Cazana Marti (18)
Did Not Sign: None
Perez is battling for the closer role. We know enough about him.
Jay is a long shot to make the team as an outfielder; he is a centerfielder, but may have to settle into a corner to make the team. Craig's spring has been tremendous, they just need to find a spot for him - he may need a season in Triple A before he gets his shot. Walter could be a fill in for the rotation if anyone goes down.
Ottavino needs to find his delivery; he struggled with control and injuries last season. Edwards took a step forward; he could be a sleeper in the system. Marti is an older player, but can kill the ball. He may never see the Majors, but he's a monster.
2007
MLB: None
Close: Clayton Mortenson (1), Jess Todd (2)
Other Notable: Pete Kozma (1), Deryk Hooker (7), Adam Reifer (11), Arnoldi Cruz
Did Not Sign: Kyle Russell (4), Sam Freeman (24)
No ones made it yet, but there are some good names here. Mort and Todd pitched in Triple A last year; both could see rotation time this season.
Reifer is a sleeper for closer in the future. Kozma is the future of shortstop. Hooker and Cruz are creaping onto team prospect lists.
Russell was one of the top hitters, but Jocketty couldn't work out a deal with him. I think the botched negotiations were part of the reason he was fired. Freeman was drafted in 2008 by the Cards, so they didn't lose out.
2008
MLB: None
Close: Brett Wallace (1)
Other Notable: Lance Lynn (1), Niko Vasquez (3), Jermaine Curtis (5)
Did Not Sign: Shane Boras (35)
Everyone knows about Wallace. Lynn is expected to be a fast mover. Most of the other guys drafted made positive impressions on the organization.
Boras is the son of SuperAgent/Scum of the Earth Scott Boras. The elder Boras played in the Cardinals system prior to becoming an agent.
They've drafted a few good players that were traded; Jack Wilson (although not that good, but was an All Star) is another one that comes to mind. Adam Kennedy was a highly touted prospect that was traded for Jim Edmonds. So, prospect in the Cardinals system rarely saw an opportunity to make it with the team since they'd be traded before they had a shot. Maybe some time I'll look at which had better value: the prospects trade or the players received?
The organization is now at a point where they can focus on drafting players with more upside, who tend to be high school players (which I believe is because they are more raw when they are drafted and better to mold). Each level of the minors have the safe, solid players. They can afford to take some more chances, like they did with Vasquez in this past draft.
Colin writes that the Cardinals didn't draft well and that their success comes from free agent signings and trades. I would argue that they did draft better than most would think and the players they drafted were normally used as trade bait.
Now they really did have some bad picks earlier in the decade - Shaun Boyd, Calvin Hayes, and Justin Pope come to mind. The 2005 draft was the turning point. Jeff Luhnow was hired to do the draft (to much controversy, and it led to the destruction of the front office). Since then, the philosophy of the team has shifted from trading prospects for veterans to incorporating prospects with seasoned MLB players.
Here's a quick glance of the last 10 drafts:
1999
MLB: Chris Duncan (1), Josh Pearce (2), Ben Johnson (4), Jimmy Journell (4), Coco Crisp (7), Albert Pujols (13), Mike Crudale (24), Bo Hart (33)
Johnson was traded to the Padres with Heathcliff Slocum for Carlos Hernandez and Nate Tebbs. Crisp was traded to the Indians for Chuck Finley. Crudale was traded to the Brewers for Mike DeJean (Crudale was in his second season with the Cardinals).
Duncan is still around for the team, after stalling early in the minors. He was considered a stretch for a supplemental first round pick. Everyone knows Pujols' story. No one else has had an impact for the team, outside of being traded.
2000
MLB: Chris Narveson (2), Yadier Molina (4), Carmen Cali (10), John Gall (11), Tyler Johnson (34)
Narveson was traded to the Rockies for Larry Walker; he was then traded to the Red Sox, waived, and claimed by the Cardinals. He is now with the Brewers.
Molina will be catching for the Cards for a long time. Johnson was useful before he was injured and non-tendered. Gall and Cali had minimal value for the Cardinals.
2001
MLB: Dan Haren (2), Joe Mather (3), Skip Schumaker (5), John Nelson (8), Terry Evans (47)
Close: Blake Hawksworth (28)
Other Notable: Justin Pope (1)
Did Not Sign: Shane Komine (19), Kevin Correia (23)
Haren was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder (Haren had played 2 seasons with the Cardinals). Evans was traded to the Angels for Jeff Weaver - he made his MLB debut for them. Pope was traded to the Yankees for Sterling Hitchcock.
Mather and Skip are having big spring trainings for us now. Haren is a stud, but was given up in that forgettable Mulder deal (he'd look real good for us now). Nelson played a handfull of games in 2006 and hasn't been heard from since.
Hawksworth is an interesting case - he's been a top prospect, gotten injured, and is attempting to make the team out of spring training. He's had control problems, but looks strong this spring.
This is where you note some MLB players that didn't sign; while Komine and Correia haven't done much, they would have made the organization's drafts look better.
2002
MLB: Brad Thompson (16), Kyle McClellan (25)
Other Notable: Cody Haerther (6), Travis Hanson (9)
Did Not Sign: Sean Kazmar (32)
A sad draft. Thompson has his uses as a spot starter/long reliever, but that's about all. McClellan had a good season in the bullpen last year; he could still have a lot of use.
Haerther the same as a lot of our outfield guys - average defense, good average, no pop. He was removed from the 40-man roster last winter, claimed by the Blue Jays, waived by them a week later only to be claimed by the Cardinals. He was taken in the minor league Rule V draft by the Blue Jays this past December.
Hanson was a decent prospect that couldn't figure out the upper minors. He retired prior to the 2008 season.
Kazmar was later draft by the Padres, where the jury is still out on his performance.
2003
MLB: Daric Barton (1), Dennis Dove (3), Brendan Ryan (7), Anthony Reyes (15), Jason Motte (19)
Other Notable: None
Did Not Sign: Ian Kennedy (14), Kevin Mulvey (34), Brett Sinkbeil (38), Max Scherzer (43), Kam Micholio (46)
Barton was traded to the Athletics for Mark Mulder - he made his MLB debut for them. Reyes was traded to the Indians for Luis Perdomo.
Dove got a cup of coffee with the team before he was released. Ryan is competing for the second base job; he's really nothing more than a utility player. We know Reyes's story too well; I'm not going to rehash it. Motte has the potential to be a closer; the problem was he was drafted as a catcher. At least they'll be able to salvage him.
Kennedy is an overrated prospect in the Yankees system, but much better than what we drafted in this class (outside of Reyes). Sinkbeil is a good prospect in the Marlins system. Scherzer would be nice to have right about now. Micholio is a good prospect in the Orioles system - he was one of the guys in the Erik Bedard deal last year.
2004
MLB: Chris Lambert (1), Mike Parisi (9), Mark Worrell (12)
Close: Jarrett Hoffpauir (6)
Other Notable: None
Lambert was traded to the Tigers for Mike Maroth - he made his MLB debut for them. Worrell was traded to the Padres for Khalil Greene.
This was the low point of our system. Lambert was a complete bust until moving to the Tigers system. Parisi looked better in the minors; he got blasted with the Cardinals last year and fell to Tommy John Surgery. Worrell became disgruntled with the organization - he was just traded, but should have a decent career.
Hoffpauir may end up in the majors, but he has little to offer. Average defense, good on base percentage, little power. He's more of a utility player than anything (see Brendan Ryan).
Most guys from this draft have been released.
Now, this is where things change. The Cardinals, under Luhnow, began to draft more college players that could fill in the system. The players they drafted had little upside, but little risk as well. As a result, the system has started to produce better players and stopped Memphis from becoming a team of 4A players.
2005
MLB: Mitchell Boggs (5), Nick Stavinoha (7), Jaime Garcia (22)
Close: Colby Rasmus (1), Tyler Greene (1), Bryan Anderson (4)
Other Notable: Daryl Jones (3), Wilfredo Pujols (6)
Did Not Sign: Daniel McCutchen (12), Ryan Rohlinger (21)
Boggs, Stavinoha, and Garcia all made their MLB debuts this past year. Boggs won the PCL ERA crown. Stavihona really doesn't have a future with the team, but will be kept around for depth. Garcia has the most upside, depending on his recovery from TJ surgery.
Colby is going to be a good player; the question is when will he get his shot? Greene looked disappointing at first, but is having a strong spring. Anderson is a great catching prospect, but is blocked so he will most likely be traded.
Jones had a great season, as the ability met up with the hype. He could be a very good player. Wil Pujols, Albert's cousin, was released; he was only drafted because of his bloodline. If they were Twins, Albert would be Arnold while Wil would be Danny.
McCutchen would be nice for depth in the bullpen. Rohlinger made his MLB debut this past season.
2006
MLB: Chris Perez (1)
Close: Jon Jay (2), Allen Craig (8), P.J. Walters (11)
Other Notable: Adam Ottavino (1), Jon Edwards (14), Amaury Cazana Marti (18)
Did Not Sign: None
Perez is battling for the closer role. We know enough about him.
Jay is a long shot to make the team as an outfielder; he is a centerfielder, but may have to settle into a corner to make the team. Craig's spring has been tremendous, they just need to find a spot for him - he may need a season in Triple A before he gets his shot. Walter could be a fill in for the rotation if anyone goes down.
Ottavino needs to find his delivery; he struggled with control and injuries last season. Edwards took a step forward; he could be a sleeper in the system. Marti is an older player, but can kill the ball. He may never see the Majors, but he's a monster.
2007
MLB: None
Close: Clayton Mortenson (1), Jess Todd (2)
Other Notable: Pete Kozma (1), Deryk Hooker (7), Adam Reifer (11), Arnoldi Cruz
Did Not Sign: Kyle Russell (4), Sam Freeman (24)
No ones made it yet, but there are some good names here. Mort and Todd pitched in Triple A last year; both could see rotation time this season.
Reifer is a sleeper for closer in the future. Kozma is the future of shortstop. Hooker and Cruz are creaping onto team prospect lists.
Russell was one of the top hitters, but Jocketty couldn't work out a deal with him. I think the botched negotiations were part of the reason he was fired. Freeman was drafted in 2008 by the Cards, so they didn't lose out.
2008
MLB: None
Close: Brett Wallace (1)
Other Notable: Lance Lynn (1), Niko Vasquez (3), Jermaine Curtis (5)
Did Not Sign: Shane Boras (35)
Everyone knows about Wallace. Lynn is expected to be a fast mover. Most of the other guys drafted made positive impressions on the organization.
Boras is the son of SuperAgent/Scum of the Earth Scott Boras. The elder Boras played in the Cardinals system prior to becoming an agent.
They've drafted a few good players that were traded; Jack Wilson (although not that good, but was an All Star) is another one that comes to mind. Adam Kennedy was a highly touted prospect that was traded for Jim Edmonds. So, prospect in the Cardinals system rarely saw an opportunity to make it with the team since they'd be traded before they had a shot. Maybe some time I'll look at which had better value: the prospects trade or the players received?
The organization is now at a point where they can focus on drafting players with more upside, who tend to be high school players (which I believe is because they are more raw when they are drafted and better to mold). Each level of the minors have the safe, solid players. They can afford to take some more chances, like they did with Vasquez in this past draft.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Top 10 Prospects
For my article at Tailgate Crashers, I wrote Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 teams (they'll also be included in my PDF Baseball Annual - more to come on that). Here's what I did for the Cards:
Cardinals
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Brett Wallace
3. Chris Perez
4. Daryl Jones
5. Bryan Anderson
6. Jason Motte
7. Jess Todd
8. Jaime Garcia
9. David Freese
10. Jon Jay
This is the system I know best in baseball; I probably could have done a top 50. They've come a long way since Jeff Luhnow took over the drafts. Rasmus is a star in the making, and Wallace could be too if he can stick at third. My sleeper is Jon Jay; he's a pure centerfielder. He'll stick at a corner though with the Cardinals since Colby's bat profiles more as a corner outfielder.
Cardinals
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Brett Wallace
3. Chris Perez
4. Daryl Jones
5. Bryan Anderson
6. Jason Motte
7. Jess Todd
8. Jaime Garcia
9. David Freese
10. Jon Jay
This is the system I know best in baseball; I probably could have done a top 50. They've come a long way since Jeff Luhnow took over the drafts. Rasmus is a star in the making, and Wallace could be too if he can stick at third. My sleeper is Jon Jay; he's a pure centerfielder. He'll stick at a corner though with the Cardinals since Colby's bat profiles more as a corner outfielder.
Cardinal Impacts on Fantasy Baseball
I think there will be quite a few Cardinals that will have an impact on fantasy baseball this year. There are the obvious ones, like Pujols, Wainwright, and Glaus. I'm going to look at some of the other ones.
Chris Carpenter - Most fantasy baseball followers may pass over Carp since he hasn't been effective/healthy in 2 seasons. Because of this, he could be a late round sleeper.
Chris Perez - I think he's valuable in deep leagues, even if he isn't the closer. He'll pick up saves for sure, and, if your league has holds, he'll pick them up as well. He'll have a good strike out rate, which will help K/9 and K categories. Same will go with Jason Motte.
Joe Mather - He'll be a nice pick up and insurance for people who draft Glaus. He'll play full time for at least the first month. If he hits well, LaRussa will have to keep his name in the lineup.
Khalil Greene - There are 2 reasons - he's in a contract year and he's not playing in Petco any more. He's see an increase in power numbers and should also get on base better.
Here are a few that I'd avoid:
Yadier Molina - He had a pretty good year with the bat last year, but I don't think he's worth owning even if he duplicates that production. He was middle of the pack for catchers, so there are a lot of better options.
Kyle Lohse - I think last year was a fluke, since he pitched much better than his career line. He's also starting to pitch under his multi-year contract, so the urgency for a great season isn't there.
Colby Rasmus - I want to preface this one by saying he's worth getting in keeper league - I took him with my first minor pick in my keeper league. In non-keeper ones, this is probably the year to avoid him. He's a slow starter, so he's definitely not worth having until May to June. He's also not guaranteed a roster spot yet. You'll find that one prospect guy that will draft him earlier than he should in most drafts. There is also a good chance he could be plucked off the waiver wires when he's either called up, or some one give up on him too early.
David Freese - This is probably a non-issue now since he's back in minor league camp, but I don't see the upside that others do. He had a great year in Memphis, but I don't see him sticking in the majors. I hope he proves me wrong, but I'm playing my feeling here.
Guys for Minor League Drafts:
Colby - Enough said.
Brett Wallace - I probably took him early (11th overall), but I had 2 first round picks and he was the first pick of the second round, where I had another 2 picks. He can rake. The position is a question, but his bat will work in the outfield and first base as well.
Bryan Anderson - If/When he gets his shot, he could be a sleeper. Even with the lack of power, his numbers so far would make him a solid catcher in most leagues. He's get you BA and OBP, and possibly some R and RBIs.
Allen Craig - The guy is proving this spring that he can hit. His position is a question mark; he's a third baseman that's block (Wallace, Freese), but is seeing time at first (blocked again) and the outfield (it's crowded before he's added to the mix). I think he'll be trade bait, but could be a minor league sleeper.
Chris Carpenter - Most fantasy baseball followers may pass over Carp since he hasn't been effective/healthy in 2 seasons. Because of this, he could be a late round sleeper.
Chris Perez - I think he's valuable in deep leagues, even if he isn't the closer. He'll pick up saves for sure, and, if your league has holds, he'll pick them up as well. He'll have a good strike out rate, which will help K/9 and K categories. Same will go with Jason Motte.
Joe Mather - He'll be a nice pick up and insurance for people who draft Glaus. He'll play full time for at least the first month. If he hits well, LaRussa will have to keep his name in the lineup.
Khalil Greene - There are 2 reasons - he's in a contract year and he's not playing in Petco any more. He's see an increase in power numbers and should also get on base better.
Here are a few that I'd avoid:
Yadier Molina - He had a pretty good year with the bat last year, but I don't think he's worth owning even if he duplicates that production. He was middle of the pack for catchers, so there are a lot of better options.
Kyle Lohse - I think last year was a fluke, since he pitched much better than his career line. He's also starting to pitch under his multi-year contract, so the urgency for a great season isn't there.
Colby Rasmus - I want to preface this one by saying he's worth getting in keeper league - I took him with my first minor pick in my keeper league. In non-keeper ones, this is probably the year to avoid him. He's a slow starter, so he's definitely not worth having until May to June. He's also not guaranteed a roster spot yet. You'll find that one prospect guy that will draft him earlier than he should in most drafts. There is also a good chance he could be plucked off the waiver wires when he's either called up, or some one give up on him too early.
David Freese - This is probably a non-issue now since he's back in minor league camp, but I don't see the upside that others do. He had a great year in Memphis, but I don't see him sticking in the majors. I hope he proves me wrong, but I'm playing my feeling here.
Guys for Minor League Drafts:
Colby - Enough said.
Brett Wallace - I probably took him early (11th overall), but I had 2 first round picks and he was the first pick of the second round, where I had another 2 picks. He can rake. The position is a question, but his bat will work in the outfield and first base as well.
Bryan Anderson - If/When he gets his shot, he could be a sleeper. Even with the lack of power, his numbers so far would make him a solid catcher in most leagues. He's get you BA and OBP, and possibly some R and RBIs.
Allen Craig - The guy is proving this spring that he can hit. His position is a question mark; he's a third baseman that's block (Wallace, Freese), but is seeing time at first (blocked again) and the outfield (it's crowded before he's added to the mix). I think he'll be trade bait, but could be a minor league sleeper.
My Expected 25-Man Roster
Here is the 25 man roster, if the season started today:
C - Yadi
1B - Pujols
2B - Ryan
3B - Mather
SS - K Greene
LF - Schumaker
CF - Ankiel
RF - Ludwick
B - Barden, Duncan, T Greene, LaRue
SP - Carpenter, Lohse, Pineiro, Wainwright, Wellemeyer
LHR - Miller, Reyes
RHR - Franklin, Kinney, McClellan, Motte, Perez, Thompson
DL - Glaus
On the Bubble: Barton, Hawksworth, Rasmus, Thurston
No Chance: Craig, Hoffpauir, Manning, Ostlund, Ring
Second base is still up on the air, but I think the Skip Experiment is done. They won't give him the starting job, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him there every one in a while. Ryan will probably get the starting gig, but Tyler Greene and Brian Barden will get opportunies as well.
That means Rasmus will start the season in Memphis, barring a trade. It looks thin on the back up outfielders, but Ryan has been getting some time in the outfield, and I wouldn't be surprised if Barden and Greene do as well. Mather is also an option if one of the other 3 utility infielders starts at third. I also expect Barton to be sent down to get regular at bats.
The rotation is set; the bullpen is close to being there. If they don't keep 8 releivers, I think McClellan should be sent down so they can work on extending him into a starter. They'll probably send down either Motte or Perez.
C - Yadi
1B - Pujols
2B - Ryan
3B - Mather
SS - K Greene
LF - Schumaker
CF - Ankiel
RF - Ludwick
B - Barden, Duncan, T Greene, LaRue
SP - Carpenter, Lohse, Pineiro, Wainwright, Wellemeyer
LHR - Miller, Reyes
RHR - Franklin, Kinney, McClellan, Motte, Perez, Thompson
DL - Glaus
On the Bubble: Barton, Hawksworth, Rasmus, Thurston
No Chance: Craig, Hoffpauir, Manning, Ostlund, Ring
Second base is still up on the air, but I think the Skip Experiment is done. They won't give him the starting job, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him there every one in a while. Ryan will probably get the starting gig, but Tyler Greene and Brian Barden will get opportunies as well.
That means Rasmus will start the season in Memphis, barring a trade. It looks thin on the back up outfielders, but Ryan has been getting some time in the outfield, and I wouldn't be surprised if Barden and Greene do as well. Mather is also an option if one of the other 3 utility infielders starts at third. I also expect Barton to be sent down to get regular at bats.
The rotation is set; the bullpen is close to being there. If they don't keep 8 releivers, I think McClellan should be sent down so they can work on extending him into a starter. They'll probably send down either Motte or Perez.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Is Allen Craig that bad?
I've been watching Allen Craig's name everyday in the box score, and can't figure out why he isn't getting a shot at third base. Is his defense that bad?
So far this spring he's hitting .500 and playing almost everyday. He's typically the guy that replaces Pujols at first base. He could be seeing time at third? His learning curve would be much less than Mather's at this point.
One reason I can see him being held back is the fact that's he's not on the 40-man roster. One easy remedy is dropping Royce Ring - with Dennys Reyes on the team, the neccesity to keep him isn't there.
Another reason is Craig played last season at Double A Springfield. While he didn't have an awful season, some considered it disappointing. The jump from Double A to the Majors isn't that uncommon, but normally the player lit up Double A.
My guess is Craig will be trade fodder. He's down the depth charts at third, and first base is spoken for. He spent some time in the outfield, but we all know that's pretty crowded too.
So far this spring he's hitting .500 and playing almost everyday. He's typically the guy that replaces Pujols at first base. He could be seeing time at third? His learning curve would be much less than Mather's at this point.
One reason I can see him being held back is the fact that's he's not on the 40-man roster. One easy remedy is dropping Royce Ring - with Dennys Reyes on the team, the neccesity to keep him isn't there.
Another reason is Craig played last season at Double A Springfield. While he didn't have an awful season, some considered it disappointing. The jump from Double A to the Majors isn't that uncommon, but normally the player lit up Double A.
My guess is Craig will be trade fodder. He's down the depth charts at third, and first base is spoken for. He spent some time in the outfield, but we all know that's pretty crowded too.
Motte Effective with Secondary Pitches
As everyone has read already, Jason Motte was using effective secondary pitches. This will help him land in the big league bullpen sooner than some thought.
Motte's story is interesting. He was a late round pick as a catcher. While his arm was good, he couldn't hit. So the Cardinals moved him to the mound. He can hit the high 90s with his fastball. The knock has been his other pitches - or lack there of. He can get by in the minors with only 1 pitch, but big league hitters will be harder to get out when they know a fastball is coming.
He was working with Chris Carpenter last year and made some strides in Memphis. His cup of coffee with the Cards was impressive last September.
It's too soon to annoint him closer, which Tony is quick to point out. I don't think he's a better option than Chris Perez in the long run, but having options doesn't hurt anything.
Motte's story is interesting. He was a late round pick as a catcher. While his arm was good, he couldn't hit. So the Cardinals moved him to the mound. He can hit the high 90s with his fastball. The knock has been his other pitches - or lack there of. He can get by in the minors with only 1 pitch, but big league hitters will be harder to get out when they know a fastball is coming.
He was working with Chris Carpenter last year and made some strides in Memphis. His cup of coffee with the Cards was impressive last September.
It's too soon to annoint him closer, which Tony is quick to point out. I don't think he's a better option than Chris Perez in the long run, but having options doesn't hurt anything.
I'm back...
After some time off from here, I'm back. I'll try to do this on a regular basis. It's all evaluation of Cardinals. I'll look at the big league team, prospects, the front office, etc.
Enjoy.
Enjoy.
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